New research shows that far fewer people from abroad are choosing to work in Norway, marking a major shift in a trend that has shaped the labour market for the past two decades.
For years, Norway relied heavily on workers from Eastern and Central Europe, especially Poland. Today that flow has slowed dramatically.
Only a third as many labour migrants arrived last year compared with a decade ago, according to figures presented at a recent Fafo seminar.
Fafo is an independent social science research foundation that develops knowledge about the conditions for participation in working life, organisational life, society and politics, the connections between policy and living conditions, and issues of democracy, development and value creation.
Poland Has Changed, And So Has Norway
Poles still make up the largest immigrant group in Norway, with around 217,000 labour migrants from Eastern and Central Europe currently living here. Yet many are now heading home.
Poland’s rapid economic development is a major reason. The country has tripled its GDP per capita in 30 years, unemployment has fallen to 3 percent, and its purchasing power is approaching that of Japan.
“Poland's stock market has been surging, and optimism is growing around its capacity to develop into one of the European Union's most robust and dynamic economies,” stated this Deutsche Welle article.
Simply put, moving to Norway no longer provides the same financial advantage.
At the same time, the Norwegian krone has weakened significantly. Over the past decade, it has lost more than 40 percent of its value against the Polish zloty, making salaries in Norway worth less when sent home or saved.
The Most Educated Are Leaving First
A new OsloMet study of 300,000 labour migrants found that those with the highest education levels are the most likely to leave Norway again.
Researchers suggest that qualified workers now have attractive opportunities elsewhere in Europe, where wages may be competitive and integration support is often stronger.
Integration Gaps Have Played a Role
For 20 years, Norwegian policy assumed that “work equals integration.” EU labour migrants were expected to manage on their own, with no introduction programme and no right to free Norwegian courses.
Fafo researchers now argue this approach has backfired. Many migrants in physically demanding, low-wage sectors report feeling like “second-class citizens,” participating in society but never fully integrated. These experiences may encourage people to build a future elsewhere.
A Europe-Wide Competition for Labour
Norway’s shift is not happening in isolation. Almost every country in Europe is facing labour shortages. According to EU surveys, 99 percent of businesses report difficulty recruiting the right competence.
Poland, once a key source of labour, has itself become a destination country. This raises a difficult question for Norway: when construction picks up again, when industry expands, and when the ageing population increases demand for health and care workers, where will the labour come from?
Immigration Fell Sharply in 2024
The broader migration picture adds context. According to Statistics Norway, immigration fell by 30 percent in 2024.
Fewer Ukrainians arrived than in the previous two years, though refugees remain a historic share of total immigration. Ukrainians are now the second-largest immigrant group in Norway, after Poles.
Work and family immigration also declined, and SSB notes that some EEA migrants may not be registering fully, adding uncertainty to the numbers.
What Happens Next?
Norway is entering a new phase where labour migration can no longer be taken for granted. Economic change in Europe, a weaker krone, and gaps in integration policy mean fewer people are choosing Norway as a place to build a life.
Researchers warn that if Norway wants people to both come and stay, improving integration and working conditions will be more important than ever.
